Tornado/Hail Season Refresher - 2016

Yep. It's a bit unusual to show Enhanced risk areas 6-8 days out. This is usually an early indicator of a storm chaser's dream multi-day setup. Talk in the chaser community is pretty excited about next week and across several days. I expect to see the Tuesday setup probably reach "Moderate" and maybe even "High" risk as we get inside the under 3-day timeframe, as well as perhaps extending into Wed/Thu/Fri time frame in other areas.

It's early but the midweek forecast models are pretty bullish on a tornado outbreak likelihood however perhaps confined to a relatively small area with very extended range forecasting models. But, it's definitely prime time now in the Tornado Alley region.

Kind of sad for me. I'll be in Texas this Saturday, so this means I will be far from Texas by next mid week

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. ON MONDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS BRING A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE SRN PLAINS WHERE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. ON TUESDAY/DAY 6...THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
JET ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE MODELS
SHOW A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S F AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ADDING A 30 PERCENT CONTOUR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX...OK
AND SRN KS. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 7...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE MO VALLEY AND
HAVING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE MID MS VALLEY EXTENDING SWWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG PARTS OF
THIS CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY/DAY 8...ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SWRN U.S. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 04/21/2016