Truck freight tonnage in the United States dipped in March 2025 following a strong performance in February, yet overall first-quarter data suggests the freight market is beginning to stabilize. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported that its seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell by 1.5% in March to a reading of 113.4, down from 115.1 in February. Despite this month-over-month decline, the index still rose 0.2% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive annual gain — a feat not seen since late 2022.
Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist, attributed the March decline to typical freight volatility, but noted that strong manufacturing activity — particularly in auto production — provided some offset. “While March declined, solid manufacturing output likely helped truck freight tonnage not fall more after a very strong February,” Costello said in a statement released April 22.
ATA’s not seasonally adjusted tonnage index, which reflects actual tonnage hauled without seasonal adjustments, rose to 114.6 in March — a 9.5% increase over February’s level of 104.7. This uptick reflects the natural freight surge that occurs in spring and underscores stronger shipper activity at the end of Q1.
Costello emphasized that the quarterly numbers were encouraging. “Overall in the first quarter, tonnage increased marginally from both the fourth and first quarters of 2024. While the gains were modest, it was the first time in two years that the quarterly average improved both sequentially and year-over-year,” he noted, suggesting the long-awaited turnaround in the freight cycle may be underway.
However, looming over this improvement is the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration’s evolving tariff strategy. After initial implementation of a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports on April 5, the administration paused the increases just days later on April 9. Nonetheless, critical tariffs remain in place on imports from China as well as on steel and aluminum, affecting supply chains and pricing.
Tim Denoyer, Vice President at ACT Research, noted that some of March’s strength likely came from shippers accelerating freight movement to get ahead of the anticipated tariff-related cost hikes. He cautioned that while second-quarter freight may benefit temporarily from continued pre-tariff shipping, rising costs and reduced purchasing power are expected to negatively affect freight volumes later in the year.
Global economic forecasts echo this concern. The World Trade Organization projects U.S. exports will fall by 12.6% in 2025 due to the tariffs. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund revised its U.S. growth projection downward to 1.8%, from 2.7% earlier in the year. Globally, growth expectations have also slipped, adding pressure to an already fragile freight recovery.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell weighed in, warning that the scale of tariff increases could significantly impact inflation and economic growth. “The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,” he said during remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago. “The economic effects will include higher inflation and slower growth.”
In summary, while Q1 2025 shows a positive trend in truck tonnage, broader economic challenges — especially tariffs — pose risks to sustained freight growth through the rest of the year. Trucking fleets and freight businesses must prepare for an uncertain but potentially stabilizing market environment.
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